Brent crude tumbles below $30 a barrel at one stage while investors take a wider flight from risk amid the COVID-19 crisis.
I bet shares in Andrex have bloody skyrocketed .
The makers of all those alcohol gels will definitely be rubbing their hands together.
Covid-19 is only a trigger. The real cause is that the markets have been utter and total bullshit for the past couple of years if not more, all it needed is a trigger the central banks couldn’t suppress.
This is mostly a correction.
The question is whether this morning is the point of maximum panic and therefore presents a buying opportunity. On the whole, I think that markets are likely to go even lower once Coronavirus takes hold in the USA, with its inadequate healthcare system.
I’m secretly hoping the virus gets the Trumpster (He can’t be in the best of respiratory health with all that sniffing)
I know I’m a bad bad person for that.
When to catch a falling knife?
The oil price being low is to the advantage to OPEC and Russia. Many oil companies cant get it out of the ground for ~$30 a barrel, so they will go broke. With less competition from the US and other places, they can then crank the price back up.
The knock on for the stock market is that it drives share prices lower. So our pensions are screwed. They will recover, but it will take years, not months.
I think that will depend upon how long the pandemic lasts for and what effect it has on commerce. I’m more optimistic than that. It looks like the rate of infections in China are slowing down and if that is the case then we can be fairly sure that the measures currently employed will bring the rate of spread of the virus under control.
I wouldn’t want to have a lot of shares in airlines or hotel chains but we’ll still be buying iPhones, cars and food.
Having the army on the streets enforcing quarantine, might work in China. It might not be so popular in the US. The US healthcare system requires that people pay insurance. There are a lot of people who don’t have insurance so wont seek treatment. Some sectors don’t pay sick pay. So there is the chance that people wont be diagnosed or will continue working.
There is a knock on effect to supply chains, the high street, hotels, airlines etc. These businesses are still going to be hit hard and / or go bust.
As an example of the madness in the US the chap below was repatriated from Wuhan by the government, quarantined by the government and then had to pay $3900 for the privilege, including ~$2,500 for an ambulance.
Unfortunately it effects everyone through pensions, and companies going bust/having to lay off workers etc. So it’s not just a problem ‘for the elite’.
Weekend crash was actually triggered by Saudi starting an oil price war.
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