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    • #5767

      Peter
      Participant

      The Corona Virus pandemic seems a bit like a war. First of all there was a general thought that it happened to others, ie China.
      Then it came here and we did not really take it seriously.
      Then came the lock down but still, that was like a phoney war, we still did not take onboard.
      Now with Boris having it and pictures of dead people being wheeled out of Hospitals, well even the numb nuts must be now getting it.
      However people still talk of going on holiday later in the year and getting back to normal.
      Well, not wanting to be a pessimist, but I think this is it for 2 or 3 years, until a vaccine can be found and widely distributed, our world has fundamentally changed.

    • #5768

      scats
      Participant

      I suspect you are right, but is this helpful knowledge, 3 weeks was never going to be long enough. However, it didn’t seem too bad a couple of weeks ago. Thinking of 9 months is pretty tough.

      There is no doubt that we will never be the same again.

    • #5769

      Ian
      Participant

      thanks for posting. Could I please kindly ask you what you mean by “I think this is it for 2 or 3 years”? Do you mean you think we’ll all be in this lockdown for 2 or 3 years? Or what do you mean, please? Thank you very much for reading this, and for answering

      • #5771

        Peter
        Participant

        Thanks for asking for clarification. I think we will be in some form of lockdown for 2 or 3 years. Obviously I cannot predict the future. Which part of the original posting did you not understand?

        I am off to lie in the Sun now, I will leave you to it, bye for now.

        • #5775

          Ian
          Participant

          The only part of the original posting I did not understand was “I think this is it” – i.e. whether you meant the lockdown there is now in the UK

          Glad to hear the sun’s out in the UK and I hope you’re enjoying it! (I’m in South Korea temporarily – it was sunny today here too – nearly 11 PM here now)

    • #5770

      mmmm
      Participant

      Well, not wanting to be a pessimist, but I think this is it for 2 or 3 years, until a vaccine can be found and widely distributed, our world has fundamentally changed.

      You may be right but much depends on the vaccine….IF its possible to get one out early then things might be better and every rich country has a direct interest in accelerating its development.

      I imagine travel between countries will still be restricted until this happens as one can only influence one’s own population regarding infectivity. Winter holiday on the UK coast possibly? Perhaps keep any areas with potential high numbers of spreaders locked down eg London.

      Perhaps some of the poorer countries may come out of the crisis much more quickly because many of the survivors will be immune but they will have suffered terribly in doing so. I don’t know what the effect on their economies will be however.

    • #5772

      James
      Participant

      What do you mean by “this is it”?

      There’s no way they’ll sustain the current level of lockdown for anywhere close to that long. Economically, there’s no way the government could do it and practically, I don’t think they could persuade/force enough of the population to stick with it.

      Still talking about it and taking measures to deal with it in three years, sure. But not in lockdown.

    • #5773

      Gaz
      Participant

      Whilst plenty are queuing to knock his plan, the Swedish strategist Tegnell said internal holidays between counties should be possible later this year, but you can forget foreign travel for a year or two at least.

      By which time most airlines will be bankrupt, tickets will cost a fortune and air travel will be a luxury again.

    • #5774

      simon
      Participant

      There’s going to be no return to the normal we knew, the virus will pass in a year or two with a little luck but the economic shock, the responses, failures and conflicts it triggers, they will outlive most of us. We live in a new era, we just don’t know what it’ll look like yet.

      • #5777

        Birdman
        Participant

        Well, normal never stays normal for very long, lots of other sh*t things (global warming, pollution, water shortages etc) lined up to make sure things will not be normal for the near future regardless of covid-19. Most humans have and still do live a precarious existence.

    • #5776

      Robert
      Participant

      This is a very pessimistic discussion. Once vaccines are available the virus will more or less peter out in the same way as MERS, SARS, Ebola and all the others. It will certainly affect our lives this year but only in that large gatherings will be banned for the whole of the summer so as to prevent a resurgence of infections.

      Private Eye’s regular MD column says that so far this year, 160,000 people have died in the UK, the normal death rate. If 6,000 of them died with CV, the remaining 154,000 died with something not newsworthy and most of those 6,000 would have died by the end of the year anyway. In the meantime, says MD, resources are being used keeping alive already sick people, diverting attention away from others who have complex medical, mental and social needs. I don’t pretend to understand the thinking behind Sweden’s policy but a physician friend has half-jokingly suggested that various EU nations may have agreed to try different strategies in a giant experiment.

    • #5778

      Yorkshirelad
      Participant

      China are down to zero deaths. There’s no reason we can’t achieve that with the social distancing given a few weeks.

      Once countries are reporting zero new cases then travel between them will open up again.

      By my calculation with a mortality rate at 1% and trickling along at 600 deaths a day, and herd immunity at 60% of the population we would take 600 days to achieve immunity. That’s just not achievable.

    • #5779

      Davedave
      Participant

      I’m optimistic. When was the last time the world had such a strong incentive to counter an immediate* threat by throwing vasts amount of money, resources and brainpower at the problem?

      *I’m not including climate change as “immediate” here – it will get the same treatment (possibly too late) in a few decades time.

      • #5780

        Peter
        Participant

        We can throw all we wish at it, but this is nature.

        It takes time to develop, test and produce s vaccine.

        Injecting an unproven vaccine into billions of people could be worse, far worse than covid

        • #5781

          bear
          Participant

          Your post appears to be an excellent example of Ultracrepidarianism.

          Also, vaccines aren’t “found”. They’re created. Many candidates already exist but their efficacy and safety is yet to be proven. It’s far from clear to me – as a non expert in vaccines – that we can count on a vaccine with the required efficacy (confers immunity to ~70% of people) to be created.

          • #5782

            eeek
            Participant

            The percentage of people or animals needed for herd immunity relies on the r0. Since this is in doubt that % is a not known. This will affect the usefulness of a vaccine and although many vaccines designed for people – e.g. measles with an efficacy of more than 90% are very effective, flu vaccines, another virus subject to genetic change is about 70% and for coronavirus could be less.

            We can all have a guess, but in this virus where cytokine damage seems to be part of the wider disease we need a vaccine that must not induce that, either in itself or upon challenge. Narcolepsy in children after one flu pandemic vaccination strategy was probably as bad as the disease and dengue vaccines have been poor at giving cross protection resulting in severe signs on second infections, again predicted by people who had naturally occurring infections sequentially.

            Donald Rumsfeld strangely comes to mind!

    • #5783

      Peter
      Participant

      I suspect people have watched too many movies where Geoff Goldbloom or Will Smith save the world and think that there is always a happy ending. Well I hope and pray thats the case this time, however even if that is the case, I think we should prepare ourselves for a long haul, and maybe not be booking any trips for August.
      Hope I am wrong.

    • #5784

      Itstinks
      Participant

      I don’t know if it will ever ‘be over’. Perhaps? Who knows? Certainly not the man I would rely on to tell me is the current ‘expert’ the government is listening to for advice. Prof Neil Ferguson

      Ferguson is an epidemiologist whose research is influencing government thinking on precautions, claimed that up 250,000 will die , has had some of his research methods/conclusions have been widely discredited and disputed by many of his peers.

      In another paper he claimed that up to 510,000 people could die from Covid 19 if no action was taken*.

      Ferguson was also the ‘expert’ during the 2001 foot and mouth epidemic. Again his disputed figures resulted in pre-emtive strikes which ultimately led to 6,000,000 cattle, sheep and pigs being slaughtered and which had not caught foot and mouth.**

      He was also behind the claims that BSE (‘Mad Cow Disease) in cattle would lead to between 50 and 150,000 human deaths. There were 178 deaths in total.

      What really shocked me about Neil Ferguson was a report in The Times that mentions that his computer simulation code has ‘several thousand lines of dense code’ with no documentation or comments, nobody understands how it works except Ferguson and it’s all in his head.

      This could go on for years. Its not like Ebola as this is so widespread.

    • #5785

      jeff
      Participant

      Please don’t bite my head off folks, and I’m obviously not an expert ha-ha-ha, but I’m just wondering why – if the lockdown in the UK is off and everyone goes back to work – why would zillions of people die in the UK? I’m wondering because:

      *Didn’t happen in South Korea so far. People are out and about and mostly back at work. Rates continue to fall; most new cases are imported by travellers arriving at Seoul airport now

      *Didn’t happen in Hong Kong so far. People are back at work. New case numbers are very low now; the few new cases are imported by arrivals from outside HK now

      *Didn’t happen in Wuhan / China (if they’re to be believed, I have no idea about that) so far

      I’m very aware that SK, HK, the UK, and China are very different places, and that CV-19 rates are different to some extent. I’m still puzzled though

      Thanks and stay safe everyone

    • #5786

      toerag
      Participant

      I think it’s because they can and do test and lockdown harder on cases – they’ve effectively reverted to / remained at the ‘containment’ phase where case volumes are low enough to be contact traced. We’re in that situation here in Guernsey to an extent – 166 cases (rising) out of 65k population – high per head, but low absolute numbers. Because we had to rely on sending tests to the UK with a 5 day turnaround time to start with the disease could spread faster than we could find it, so the island got ‘locked down’ as a preventative measure – only essential businesses open and people only allowed out under heavy social distancing rules. Now we can test on island and get results within 24hours we’re able to catch contacts before they become infective and thus are able to start relaxing the restrictions – today all businesses can sell pre-ordered deliveries. We can test ~75 cases a day with the present lack of swabs and reagents, but can do 200 when all resources are available. That’s enough to cope with the low infection rate resulting from social distancing rules. Looking at the stats, I suspect all the new cases in the past week were from household transmission which is a good sign. Next week tradesmen working under social distancing rules are likely to be allowed to start up again. The far eastern countries have dropped back to that stage – mild social distancing combined with good tracing and testing is able to keep the spread within check. At present the UK doesn’t have the capability to test fast enough and contact trace the volumes of contacts generated, so it will need to remain restricted until it does – there’s simply too much virus in the community to risk opening up the country to the 35% per day spread rate it had to start with.

      Even with our restricted testing we’ve tested 1100 people – 1.7% of the population. The UK has tested about 0.3%. South Korea has tested 0.7%, but of course it’s not needed to test more. Equating numbers ‘per head’ with covid isn’t particularly helpful, equating numbers per infectable population would be.

    • #5834

      Davedave
      Participant

      I cant see the current situation becoming status quo for 2-3 years.

      What’s the point of beating a health epidemic if at the end of it the country and its citizens are worse off than ever. People going hungry, losing their home, deteriorating mental and physical health due to being unable to feed themselves, losing jobs, depression etc. etc. I applaud the government for doing as much as it can helping people and businesses financially during this time, however the reality is that this is not a long term solution, the government cannot pay people indefinitely.

      If (but i hope it doesn’t) this were to continue for that length of time surely there would come a point where the economic damage being done starts to outweigh the damage done through people becoming ill and/or dying.

      As horrible as that sounds, if a 2-3 year time frame were to be the case it would come to a point where the country would do less damage to itself to let people get ill and die from it than continue as we are and inflict economic hardship on the masses to save the (relatively in terms of population) few.

      Just as has been said that if the number of patients becomes overwhelming, doctors will be forced to make tough decisions on who will and will not get treatment based on their likelihood of recovery. We would probably be forced to make similar tough decisions based on having an economy.

      I would like to hope come mid summer we are starting to return to some sense of normality. As far as 100% open for business i could easily envisage many months before we can all merrily go about attending concerts and sporting events with tens of thousands all together at one time.

      • #5835

        Andrew
        Participant

        The numbers are huge though. To get to herd immunity, if the 60% of 60m have to get it, then we are looking at 500,000 deaths. Dripping them through the NHS even at 1000 a day is 500 days. Even 350,000 would take us past Christmas and I think we’d run out of NHS staff pretty quickly if this keeps going for long.

        • #5837

          Coffeedrinker
          Participant

          I really, really wish people on the forums would stop posting speculative numbers of the death toll

          Do you know that such posts can have a very harmful or critical effect on people with anxiety issues and / or other issues. You do not know the consequences of that. They can be extreme

          I am not putting my head in the sand. But please leave such numbers to the experts, if they wish to post / publish them.

          • #5838

            Peter
            Participant

            I really, really wish people on the forums would stop posting speculative numbers of the death toll

            Some posters are giving speculative solutions to getting out of this mess. If that’s to be discussed it’s important to have an idea what the bounds in deaths are for those solutions. Andrew’s number is not beyond the range of predictions I have seen.

            Get this wrong and 250,000 to 500,000 people may well die. 500,000 is a bit high for the expert opinions, but expert opinions got us here (cf New Zealand).

            Do you know that such posts can have a very harmful or critical effect on people with anxiety issues and / or other issues. You do not know the consequences of that. They can be extreme

            Difficult time. It’s probably best for them not to read any covid retaggr thread or other social media or to read the news much. Today the news was talking about forklift trucks loading bodies into lorries for burial in mass graves in New York and deaths there haven’t peaked yet.

            I have no idea how one deals with depression and anxiety in incredibly depressing and anxious times, but expecting the world to pretend it isn’t happening isn’t very useful to everyone else who finds the collective mind here useful.

            Perhaps retaggr should have a separate covid forum with the option for users to hide it, and with the powers that be shunting threads over there.

            I am not putting my head in the sand. But please leave such numbers to the experts, if they wish to post / publish them.

            That “rule” either applies to everything or nothing. A lot of the naive “save the economy by releasing lockdown” sentiment has no expert authority behind it, and if it is left unchallenged without giving consequences – that can be backed by figures – things get very one sided.

            • This reply was modified 3 months, 3 weeks ago by Peter.
    • #5836

      fredders
      Participant

      I’m pretty optimistic that we can get through this without hundreds of thousands of deaths and equally importantly without the long term illness among the survivors.

      We need to follow China:

      a. clamp down hard. Possibly harder than we are now.

      b. test like hell. Once the deaths and new cases fall to near zero then

      c. very hard border controls. Either long quarantines or very reliable testing.

      d. tech methods like the badge I’ve been banging on about or the Google/Apple proposal to do much the same thing with smartphones. This logging lets you evaluate the level of social distancing and contact trace rapidly to suppress the occasional flare up quickly.

      e. social distancing and hygiene procedures gradually adopted by everyone. More working from home, more videoconferencing, deliveries rather than shopping in person, more automation and robots to avoid humans touching product, UV disinfection, reconfigured stores.

      We can get into an acceptable stable state which can be maintained until a vaccine or effective treatment is available.

      The other side of it is how to pay for the lock down period. I think it will be a disaster to try and pay for it by loading people and business with debt. The way to deal with it is with Universal Basic Income and no rent, no tax, no interest payments during lockdown. Pay for it by printing money and a one-off wealth tax on the very rich.

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