April 20, 2020 at 5:56 pm #6141
Anyone know where to find all the COVID stats. We only seem to get daily reporting on death rate.
I’m more interested in hospital admission numbers as it’s a leading indicator, whereas deaths are a lagging indicator.
Hospital admissions, numbers in ICU etc are more interesting. If those are coming down already, or still plateaued, or (i hope not) still rising its a better indication of our current trajectory.
I can only find articles from the start of the month, or from news sources such as the express etc. of which i pay no attention to as i expect them to be a crap source of data.
The best i’ve found is this from 18th April in the Scotsman but it would be nice to see charts, and spreadsheet (total nerd)
“17,759 people are currently in hospital with coronavirus in Great Britain, down from 18,711 yesterday.”
Professor Stephen H Powis, National Medical Director of NHS England, said: “We are seeing a reduction in the number of people in hospital with Covid 19.”
April 20, 2020 at 5:57 pm #6142
April 20, 2020 at 5:57 pm #6143
April 20, 2020 at 5:59 pm #6144
April 20, 2020 at 6:01 pm #6146
The Financial Times had some graphs a few days ago of hospital occupancy vs NHS region. I never found their primary source of data. So I’ll be watching your thread with great interest hoping for an answer covering hospital admissions and ward patient levels…
April 20, 2020 at 6:02 pm #6147
The daily new cases shown here is a good indicator, as most of the testing in the UK is for hospital admissions and hospital staff.
‘Breakdown of testing by 3 of the testing strategy ‘pillars’’
It’s concerning that although it’s plateaued it’s not coming down.
April 20, 2020 at 6:03 pm #6149
That’s because the start of multiple outbreaks are staggered in time, so as one (e.g. London) starts to decrease others take it’s place. Countries that locked down early (China, Luxembourg, South Korea etc.) generally have a steep decrease curve compared to others that let it get all over the place because they only had one outbreak to deal with.
Lots more info here: http://nrg.cs.ucl.ac.uk/mjh/covid19/
The USA will remain close to their peak for ages for this reason. For example, Wyoming has a population of ~500k, yet only has 422 cases. Plenty of infection yet to happen in the USA.
April 20, 2020 at 6:03 pm #6150
Does anyone know why the uk is the only country on the worldometers site that doesnt seem to record ‘recovered’ cases?
April 20, 2020 at 6:04 pm #6151
Good links to data but i still can’t see a hospital admissions rate data set.
I reckon that is the most useful because:
Not everyone who has it will get tested, and not everyone who has it will pass away, but everyone who has it severe enough will likely end up in hospital. So by tracking hospital admissions rates due to COVID then i reckon that would give a good picture of where we are at.
If for example per every 100 people that had COVID, 5 of those ended up in hospital and the other 95 recovered at home by having the data on hospital admissions and seeing if they were up, down, plateaued you could likely infer that for the other 95% which didn’t require hospital admission the figures were following the same trend. Meaning you could potentially see how the pandemic was progressing without having tested everyone. Of course it wouldn’t be massively accurate but could show a general trend.
Death rate is easily 1,2 possibly 3 weeks behind the current state of play new infection wise. Of all the unfortunate people that passed away today i wonder how long it has been since contracting COVID-19?
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